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Integrated Wealth Management
Our Outspoken View on the Yield Curve Inversion

The media is buzzing about the current state of the yield curve as portending an economic recession. We’re not as up in arms as many industry participants and do not feel this is a strong indication that you make a wholesale move out of the stock market. Here’s our view on the current yield curve inversion.

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Investing Newsletter - Jul 2019
  • Stock and bond markets rebounded sharply in the first half of 2019.

  • Over the next 10 years, Vanguard expects stock and bond returns to be lower than the historical averages.

  • Vanguard forecasts higher returns for foreign stocks vs. US stocks during this period.

  • GMO’s 7-year return forecast is lower than Vanguard’s.

  • Stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, have neared their historical average return for only 6 out of the last 93 years – returns have varied widely for other years.

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